Mizzou, higher education prepares for recruitment challenges.

Even before the Missouri Tigers beat Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl on December 29, putting a bow on a remarkable 2023 season, college officials were already seeing a surge in freshmen applications for the next school year. And by the end of January 2024, Mizzou’s freshmen application total set a record of nearly 22,400. 

Due to that vibrant interest — and the lingering impact of the Flutie Effect — a record 6,243 freshmen began classes at Mizzou on August 19.  

The Flutie Effect describes the phenomenon where a college’s athletic success, especially in higher profile sports like football or basketball, prompts a surge in popularity and an increase in applications. The phenomenon got its name from one of the most remarkable plays in college football history. In November 1984, Boston College quarterback Doug Flutie’s last-second, Hail Mary pass to receiver Gerard Phelan gave the Eagles a 47-45 win over defending national champion Miami. What would become a record number of freshmen applications turned into a nearly 17 percent increase in enrollment at Boston College for the following school year. 

A Great Time To Be A Tiger 

With the backdrop of last season’s 11-2 record, the 2024 Tigers are poised to be a Top 10 team and a likely contender for college football’s expanded playoff format — with one, if not two, Heisman Trophy contenders in wide receiver Luther Burden III and quarterback Brady Cook. Avoiding missteps against overmatched nonconference opponents and successfully navigating the minefield that is the SEC conference schedule could result in a season for the ages. 

But whether the Flutie Effect can repeat six or even twelve months from now is questionable, regardless of the Tigers’ success on the gridiron. Just as officials forecast record enrollment in late 2023, another forecast has been on the horizon for some years now as the number of high school graduates sharply declines. The generational population shift could lead to what higher education analysts have called the “Enrollment Cliff.” 

To combat the anticipated decline in enrollment numbers, University of Missouri admissions officials noted in an email to COMO Business Times that they have heeded the “enrollment cliff” warnings and have already taken steps to meet that challenge. The approach involves “personalized touchpoints” in the enrollment cycle in an era of increasingly popular artificial intelligence (AI) and, perhaps, not-so-personalized methods of recruitment. 

“The university has increased its focus on personalizing the recruitment process,” admissions officials said, noting that they work closely with families in person, hosting events in cities across the U.S., and bringing high school counselors to campus. The process includes handwritten letters and cards, phone outreach, and one-on-one interactions at high schools. 

“This more personalized approach helps students understand exactly where Mizzou’s strengths match their own — ensuring a good fit that supports both recruitment and retention,” the admissions statement added. 

Higher ED musters its forces

CollegeVine, a national AI platform and network of students and data aimed to assist student recruitment, has some of the more recent enrollment cliff forecasts, citing lower birth rates leading to naturally lower high school graduation rates, a decline in the number of high school graduates choosing to attend college whether due to cost or opting for a technical or trade school, or students leaving their state for college farther from home where the weather, school, or economy are more attractive. 

Meanwhile, Mizzou is also beefing up its recruitment of so-called nontraditional students, which may be older students or transfer students. Online courses are also on the recruitment and enrollment protection menu. Transfer students have different needs and expectations throughout the enrollment process, MU admissions officials said, noting that degree requirements and articulation of course credit are typically at the forefront of conversations with transfer students. 

In 2019, Mizzou established the Transfer Center to serve that population and support transfers through the application and enrollment process. 

“As a joint partnership between Admissions and Undergraduate Studies, we have developed robust plans for the recruitment and retention of these students,” officials said in an email response. “Some of these include the Finish Line program for students that left Mizzou but are close to graduation, and building community college partnerships and travel to community colleges to meet with students interested in Mizzou.” 

How to change the narrative? 

Combatting the “sky is falling” public narrative about higher education is also sending Mizzou officials back to the basics to reframe the story. 

“A college education is still a good investment — both for individuals and their careers — and for local, state and national economies,” the statement explained. “It is no secret that there is a significant decline in the number of students graduating from high school in the upcoming years. The enrollment cliff is widely publicized, especially in the Midwest.” 

According to The Chronicle of Higher Education, “the consensus view is that America will hit a peak of around 3.5 million high school graduates sometime near 2025. After that, the college-age population is expected to shrink across the next five to ten years by as much as 15 percent.” To combat that decline, Mizzou will continue to recruit heavily across Missouri, “and we have taken an aggressive approach to recruitment outside of Missouri and the surrounding states. We are also using data to support our personalization efforts in recruitment,” officials said. 

The Chronicle also reported that colleges won’t equally bear the burden of fewer 18-year-olds, noting, “Less selective institutions and those with leaner operating margins are likely to feel the pinch more acutely than highly selective colleges with huge cash reserves, whose waiting lists might just simply become a fewer-pages shorter.” 

Meanwhile, a shrinking, more competitive environment for traditional college freshmen is likely to ratchet up the pressure on colleges to package, finance, and sell themselves at an affordable price to consumers — no longer just “students” — who are no longer willing to pay higher tuition prices every year. And as age demographics continue to shift, legislators will have to balance the demands of older Americans on fixed incomes and with greater medical needs against the preferences of educational institutions. Those economic and political pressures, already occurring across the country, are likely to intensify. 

‘A signal of profound changes’ 

The higher education resource, EducationDynamics, which is a marketing and enrollment growth solutions company, says it has observed that the student population “is undergoing a transformation that goes beyond mere demographic numbers.” A growing contingent of potential students is bypassing the traditional college experience in favor of immediate entry into the workforce.  

Addressing the needs of “modern learners” — those who desire more flexible and accessible pathways to finish their education — must be accommodated with online courses, night classes, and accelerated programs “that fit into the busy lives of working adults,” according to EducationDynamics. 

The company sums up the recruitment and enrollment challange thusly: 

“The 2025 enrollment cliff is more than a demographic blip; it’s a signal of profound changes in the higher education landscape … By focusing on flexibility, career alignment, and accessibility, higher education institutions can not only weather the challenges ahead but also emerge stronger, more relevant, and more responsive to the needs of a changing student population. The task ahead is substantial, but with strategic adjustments and a focus on value and outcomes, the future of higher education can be reshaped to meet the demands of the 21st century.” 

Bring on Boston College. 

For Mizzou, some factors that may have contributed to the increase in applications may also help the university avoid a precipitous drop in enrollment. Those factors include the Mizzou football Tigers gaining and maintaining national attention; ranking by TIME magazine as the thirteenth best public school in the country; and increased spending on reaching students outside Missouri. 

But can the Flutie Effect remain in effect? As fate or coincidence would have it, Missouri hosts Boston College at Faurot Field in the third game of the season at 11:45 a.m. Saturday, September 14. The game comes 39 years and 10 months after long-retired and all-time Canadian Football League star Doug Flutie threw that magical pass that eventually spawned a term that continues to reverberate across college landscapes.